ABSTRACT
The political crisis in Venezuela has persisted since 2013, characterized by deepening economic instability, widespread corruption, and a deteriorating democratic system. This article examines the root causes of the political crisis, focusing on the breakdown of state institutions, the erosion of political pluralism, and the government's response to opposition movements. Analysing Maduro’s role, and how Venezuela has evolved into an autocracy, we will see how the country is probably reaching a point of civil rupture and clash, after the contested Presidential elections of this summer, which are claimed to be stolen by the opposition parties and some international institutions.
“Maduro’s regime could collapse in the same manner as Assad’s in Syria”. [4] These are the stark words of María Corina Machado, the leader of Venezuela's opposition, who asserts that the situation in the country is so precarious that the risk of a civil war is imminent. To fully understand the gravity of the political dynamics in Venezuela, it is essential to examine developments in the preceding months.
In July 2024, Venezuela held a presidential election. The two primary contenders were Nicolás Maduro, the incumbent president, and Edmundo González Urrutia, the candidate for the opposition coalition, and a former diplomat with a centrist background. Urrutia replaced María Corina Machado as the opposition's presidential candidate after being disqualified [15] from holding public office until 2038 because of her associations with Juan Guaidó. Disqualification is regarded [11] by the EU Parliament as an authoritarian and unjustified decision that has sparked significant controversy.
Nicolás Maduro, the current president of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela—officially named in honor of Simón Bolívar since 1999—is a controversial and distinctive figure. Known for his extravagant personality, political astuteness, and authoritarian style, Maduro is considered a dictator by Amnesty International. [3] He began his political career as a union leader before rising to prominence within the Socialist Party and eventually becoming vice president under President Hugo Chávez in 2012.
Chávez, who led Venezuela from 1999 to 2013, was himself an authoritarian figure espousing anti-imperialist, populist, socialist, and nationalist views. Under Chávez’s rule, Venezuela saw a significant erosion of democratic rights and institutions. His policies, aligned with the ideology of chavismo [17], prioritized populist social programs that were effective in the short term but contributed to the worsening of the country’s macroeconomic conditions. This has led to hyperinflation, shortages, and the ongoing humanitarian crisis that continues to plague Venezuela today.
Upon Chávez's death in 2013, Maduro assumed the presidency. He inherited a deeply troubled nation with significant economic challenges, including high corruption, clientelism within state-owned oil companies, ineffective public spending, and over-reliance on oil exports. These factors render Venezuela vulnerable to global market fluctuations. Under Maduro, crime rates soared and the country became a major drug trafficking hub. [8, 18]
Maduro has ruled Venezuela since 2013, and during his tenure, the country has seen a dramatic deterioration in nearly every aspect of governance. Freedom of the press, judicial independence, the right to protest, and the rights of opposition parties have all been systematically suppressed through authoritarian decrees and laws. Maduro consolidated power through authoritarian methods. [14]
Since Maduro took office, Venezuela has been plagued by hyperinflation, severe shortages, and skyrocketing prices. While the economic crisis was exacerbated by sanctions imposed by the United States, it is important to note that the economic decline began long before these measures were enacted. [13] The U.S. sanctions were briefly lifted in 2022 as part of an agreement [6] to allow Venezuelan oil to flow to global markets amid the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, but have recently been reinstated after this summer political crisis. [12] Venezuela's economic crisis depends on the expropriation policies by the government, an imprudent and corrupt investment in oil resources with no diversification, and inefficient public expenditures. Over 94% of the population does not have sufficient income to purchase goods and services, and almost a third of the population is forced to engage in low-income informal work to access essential services, including food. The inflation rate makes it difficult to afford basic living goods. [1]
In 2019, opposition leader Juan Guaidó challenged Maduro’s government. Following the disputed 2018 presidential elections, deemed illegitimate by the United Nations, Guaidó, as president of the National Assembly, invoked a constitutional provision [7] to assume the role of an interim president. Guaidó called for mass protests and strikes, which were met with violent repression by Venezuela’s National Guard, resulting in the death of 13 people and the arrest of at least 300. [10, 19] While Guaidó was recognized as president by the U.S., the European Union, and the United Kingdom, support from other international powers—such as Russia, China, and Iran—helped Maduro retain control.
The imposition of the U.S. and U.K. sanctions severely crippled the Venezuelan economy yet paradoxically strengthened Maduro's position. By framing sanctions [16] as part of a foreign plot to destabilize Venezuela, Maduro was able to rally nationalist sentiments and solidify his power.
Despite enduring an economic collapse, the COVID-19 pandemic, political upheavals, and attempted coups, Maduro consolidated his authority through pragmatic political maneuvering and exploiting the changing geopolitical environment. For instance, in 2023, he engaged in negotiations [9] with opposition leaders, presenting an alleged commitment to democratization, which led to some easing of the sanctions. This move, alongside deals with the U.S. for oil exports following the Ukrainian conflict, bolstered his standing internationally.
In the lead-up to the 2024 elections, Maduro’s political survival appeared almost certain, despite widespread discontent with his rule. The government-controlled National Electoral Council declared him the winner of the election with 51% of the vote [2], although it refused to provide any electoral evidence to substantiate this result. Many academics, statisticians, and international organizations have claimed that Urrutia has won by a significant margin. In the aftermath of the election, Maduro issued an arrest warrant for Urrutia [5], who fled to Spain and was granted asylum.
In January 2025, Maduro is expected to be officially declared the president of Venezuela, despite the widespread doubts about the election’s legitimacy. His leadership will continue to be supported by powerful international allies including Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and Cuba. However, given the profound dissatisfaction among the Venezuelan population and the possibility of a more aggressive U.S. approach under the incoming Trump administration, the risk of violent protest remains high. María Corina Machado’s prediction of a “Syrian future” for Venezuela, characterized by civil unrest and political instability, may prove to be an increasingly likely scenario.
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